Adam's Oscar Predictions 2011

Well, not my best year at predicting.

Adam’s Oscar ballot [click to enlarge]

So my prediction is that Avatar will win Best Picture because it will get more second- and third-place votes than The Hurt Locker or other contenders. Under the new voting system for Best Picture, instead of voters just picking their favorite, and the one with the most votes winning, voters must rank the films, and then assuming no film gets 50% of the first-place votes the film with the lowest number of first-place votes drops out and its votes are allocated to the second choice of those voters, and that is repeated until one film winds up with 50% or more. This process or something similar should be adopted to our political system. This would allow people to vote for a third-party candidate without “throwing away” their votes. If third-party votes prevented any candidate from getting 50% of the votes, then the second choices of the third-party voters would come into play. Over time, a third-party or parties could become politically viable, so the 99% of all elected officials in the United States who come from the Democrats or Republicans would stand to gain little from such a process being adopted. But I can hope.

2009 Oscar Predictions [for 2008 films]

Last year, I correctly predicted 15 out of 24 categories, or a weighted total of 28 points out of a possible 42. This year, I got 16 out of 24.

Best Motion Picture of the Year

Nominees:

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button: Ceán Chaffin, Kathleen Kennedy, Frank Marshall

Frost/Nixon: Brian Grazer, Ron Howard, Eric Fellner

Milk: Bruce Cohen, Dan Jinks

The Reader: Anthony Minghella, Sydney Pollack, Donna Gigliotti, Redmond Morris

Slumdog Millionaire: Christian Colson

Prediction: Slumdog Millionaire; Actual Result: Slumdog Millionaire

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role

Nominees:

Richard Jenkins for The Visitor

Frank Langella for Frost/Nixon

Sean Penn for Milk

Brad Pitt for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Mickey Rourke for The Wrestler

Prediction: Sean Penn (pretty close to 50/50 on Penn vs. Rourke); Actual Result: Sean Penn

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role

Nominees:

Anne Hathaway for Rachel Getting Married

Angelina Jolie for Changeling

Melissa Leo for Frozen River

Meryl Streep for Doubt

Kate Winslet for The Reader

Prediction: Kate Winslet (Kate’s great, but I’d give it to Streep); Actual Result: Kate Winslet

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees:

Josh Brolin for Milk

Robert Downey Jr. for Tropic Thunder

Philip Seymour Hoffman for Doubt

Heath Ledger for The Dark Knight

Michael Shannon for Revolutionary Road

Prediction: Heath Ledger; Actual Result: Heath Ledger

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

Nominees:

Amy Adams for Doubt

Penélope Cruz for Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Viola Davis for Doubt

Taraji P. Henson for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Marisa Tomei for The Wrestler

Prediction: Viola Davis (Cruz would be the obvious choice, but there always seem to be surprises in this category, and everyone who saw Doubt raved about Davis’s performance, short though it was); Actual Result: Penélope Cruz

Best Achievement in Directing

Nominees:

Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire

Stephen Daldry for The Reader

David Fincher for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Ron Howard for Frost/Nixon

Gus Van Sant for Milk

Prediction: Danny Boyle; Actual Result: Danny Boyle

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen

Nominees:

Frozen River: Courtney Hunt

Happy-Go-Lucky: Mike Leigh

In Bruges: Martin McDonagh

Milk: Dustin Lance Black

WALL·E: Andrew Stanton, Pete Docter, Jim Reardon

Prediction: Milk [but I’d love for it to be Happy-Go-Lucky]; Actual Result: Milk

Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published

Nominees:

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button: Eric Roth, Robin Swicord

Doubt: John Patrick Shanley

Frost/Nixon: Peter Morgan

The Reader: David Hare

Slumdog Millionaire: Simon Beaufoy

Prediction: Slumdog Millionaire [I doubt Doubt, but that’s my vote]; Actual Result: Slumdog Millionaire

Best Achievement in Cinematography

Nominees:

Changeling: Tom Stern

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button: Claudio Miranda

The Dark Knight: Wally Pfister

The Reader: Roger Deakins, Chris Menges

Slumdog Millionaire: Anthony Dod Mantle

Prediction: Slumdog Millionaire; Actual Result: Slumdog Millionaire

Best Achievement in Editing

Nominees:

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button: Angus Wall, Kirk Baxter

The Dark Knight: Lee Smith

Frost/Nixon: Daniel P. Hanley, Mike Hill

Milk: Elliot Graham

Slumdog Millionaire: Chris Dickens

Prediction: The Dark Knight; Actual Result: Slumdog Millionaire

Best Achievement in Art Direction

Nominees:

Changeling: James J. Murakami, Gary Fettis

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button: Donald Graham Burt, Victor J. Zolfo

The Dark Knight: Nathan Crowley, Peter Lando

The Duchess: Michael Carlin, Rebecca Alleway

Revolutionary Road: Kristi Zea, Debra Schutt

Prediction: The Dark Knight; Actual Result: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Best Achievement in Costume Design

Nominees:

Australia: Catherine Martin

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button: Jacqueline West

The Duchess: Michael O’Connor

Milk: Danny Glicker

Revolutionary Road: Albert Wolsky

Prediction: The Duchess [because it’s a costume drama]; Actual Result: The Duchess

Best Achievement in Makeup

Nominees:

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button: Greg Cannom

The Dark Knight: John Caglione Jr., Conor O’Sullivan

Hellboy II: The Golden Army: Mike Elizalde, Thomas Floutz

Prediction: Hellboy II: The Golden Army; Actual Result: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score

Nominees:

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button: Alexandre Desplat

Defiance: James Newton Howard

Milk: Danny Elfman

Slumdog Millionaire: A.R. Rahman

WALL·E: Thomas Newman

Prediction: Slumdog Millionaire [the Best Picture tends to be the favorite, regardless of the musical quality]; Actual Result: Slumdog Millionaire

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song

Nominees:

Slumdog Millionaire: A.R. Rahman, Sampooran Singh Gulzar (“Jai Ho”)

Slumdog Millionaire: A.R. Rahman, Maya Arulpragasam (“O Saya”)

WALL·E: Peter Gabriel, Thomas Newman (“Down to Earth”)

Prediction: Slumdog Millionaire, “Jai Ho” [why only three nominees? There were other songs out there.]; Actual Result: “Jai Ho”

Best Achievement in Sound

Nominees:

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button: David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce, Mark Weingarten

The Dark Knight: Ed Novick, Lora Hirschberg, Gary Rizzo

Slumdog Millionaire: Ian Tapp, Richard Pryke, Resul Pookutty

WALL·E: Tom Myers, Michael Semanick, Ben Burtt

Wanted: Chris Jenkins, Frank A. Montaño, Petr Forejt

Prediction: Wall•E; Actual Result: Slumdog Millionaire

Best Achievement in Sound Editing

Nominees:

The Dark Knight: Richard King

Iron Man: Frank E. Eulner, Christopher Boyes

Slumdog Millionaire: Tom Sayers

WALL·E: Ben Burtt, Matthew Wood

Wanted: Wylie Stateman

Prediction: The Dark Knight; Actual Result: The Dark Knight

Best Achievement in Visual Effects

Nominees:

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button: Eric Barba, Steve Preeg, Burt Dalton, Craig Barron

The Dark Knight: Nick Davis, Chris Corbould, Timothy Webber, Paul J. Franklin

Iron Man: John Nelson, Ben Snow, Daniel Sudick, Shane Mahan

Prediction: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button; Actual Result: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year

Nominees:

Bolt: Chris Williams, Byron Howard

Kung Fu Panda: John Stevenson, Mark Osborne

WALL·E: Andrew Stanton

Prediction: Wall•E [surest thing besides Heath Ledger]; Actual Result: Wall•E

Best Foreign Language Film of the Year

Nominees:

The Baader Meinhof Complex [Der Baader Meinhof Komplex] (Germany)

The Class [Entre les murs] (France)

Revanche (Austria)

Departures [Okuribito] (Japan)

Waltz with Bashir [Vals Im Bashir] (Israel)

Prediction: Waltz with Bashir [I preferred The Class; handicapped by not having seen the other three when I made this prediction]; Actual Result: Departures

Best Documentary, Features

Nominees:

The Betrayal — Nerakhoon: Ellen Kuras, Thavisouk Phrasavath

Encounters at the End of the World: Werner Herzog, Henry Kaiser

The Garden: Scott Hamilton Kennedy

Man on Wire: James Marsh, Simon Chinn

Trouble the Water: Tia Lessin, Carl Deal

Prediction: Man on Wire [could be Trouble the Water, which I missed in its theatrical run; saw only Man on Wire and Encounters… as of this writing] Actual Result: Man on Wire

Best Documentary, Short Subjects

Nominees:

The Conscience of Nhem En: Steven Okazaki

The Final Inch: Irene Taylor Brodsky, Tom Grant

Smile Pinki: Megan Mylan

The Witness from the Balcony of Room 306: Adam Pertofsky, Margaret Hyde

Prediction: um…The Witness from the Balcony of Room 306 [seems to be about US civil rights; not as surefire as if it were about the Holocaust, but…]; Actual Result: Smile Pinki

Best Short Film, Animated

Nominees:

La Maison en petits cubes: Kunio Katô

Ubornaya istoriya — lyubovnaya istoriya: Konstantin Bronzit

Oktapodi: Emud Mokhberi, Thierry Marchand

Presto: Doug Sweetland

This Way Up: Alan Smith, Adam Foulkes

Prediction: Presto [I preferred La Maison en petits cubes, but I have to go with the Pixar one, the only one many people have seen (as shown theatrically before Wall•E), which would be my second choice]; Actual Result: La maison en petit cubes

Best Short Film, Live Action

Nominees:

On the Line [Auf der Strecke]: Reto Caffi

Manon on the Asphalt [Manon sur le bitume]: Elizabeth Marre, Olivier Pont

New Boy: Steph Green, Tamara Anghie

The Pig [Grisen]: Tivi Magnusson, Dorthe Warnø Høgh

Toyland [Spielzeugland]: Jochen Alexander Freydank

Prediction: Toyland [I thought this was the weakest of the five, but never bet against the Holocaust film]; Actual Result: Toyland

2008 Oscar Predictions [for 2007 films] and Winners

Predictions are checked; actual winners highlighted. I correctly predicted 15 out of 24 categories, or a weighted total of 28 points out of a possible 42.

BEST PICTURE
[ ] Atonement [ ] Juno [ ] Michael Clayton [ X ] No Country for Old Men [ ] There Will Be Blood

Pretty good odds on this.

DIRECTOR
[ ] Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood [ X ] Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men [ ] Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton [ ] Jason Reitman, Juno [ ] Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

I’d say there’s an even chance the Picture and Director awards could diverge. They didn’t.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
[ ] Juno [ ] Lars and the Real Girl [ X ] Michael Clayton [ ] Ratatouille [ ] The Savages

This would be my choice, too, but Juno’s screenwriter has been getting all the buzz, so that could win. …and did, so why didn’t I listen to myself?

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
[ ] Atonement [ ] Away from Her [ ] The Diving Bell and the Butterfly [ X ] No Country for Old Men [ ] There Will Be Blood

I was quite fond of Away from Her, but it won’t win. None of these was a dud, although the screenplay was not the strongest aspect of Diving Bell.

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
[ ] George Clooney, Michael Clayton [ X ] Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood [ ] Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street [ ] Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah [ ] Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises

Viggo Mortensen and Daniel Day-Lewis would equally be my choice, but Day-Lewis has the showier role. Plus, he was great.

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
[ ] Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age [ ] Julie Christie, Away from Her [ X ] Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose [ ] Laura Linney, The Savages [ ] Ellen Page, Juno

I liked the others, but those who saw La Vie en Rose couldn’t fail to be impressed, despite the language barrier; plus, portrayals of real people tend to win. I would give it to her because, compared to the others, the role had the highest degree of difficulty.

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
[ ] Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford [ X ] Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men [ ] Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson’s War[ ] Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild [ ] Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton

Good choices all, but Javier Bardem was practically a lead and scared the crap out of anyone who saw No Country. And not just because of his haircut.

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
[ X ] Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There [ ] Ruby Dee, American Gangster [ ] Saoirse Ronan, Atonement [ ] Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone [ ] Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton

A really tough category; Ruby Dee might get the award as a sentimental gesture, but although she was very good, the role was small and not that memorable. I was impressed by the other four. Missed that one.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
[ ] 12 (Russia) [ ] Beaufort (Israel) [ X ] Counterfeiters (Austria) [ ] Katyn (Poland) [ ] Mongol (Kazakhstan)

None of these has opened in Philly, but, when in doubt, go with the Holocaust-themed movie. Indeed.

ANIMATED FEATURE
[ ] Persepolis [ X ] Ratatouille [ ] Surf’s Up

Would love for the brilliant Persepolis to win, but the Disney/Pixar flick is the 900-pound gorilla here.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
[ X ] No End in Sight [ ] Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience [ ] Sicko [ ] Taxi to the Dark Side [ ] War/Dance

I’ve only seen No End in Sight and Sicko, so a tough call. And a big miss.

SHORT FILM — ANIMATED
[ ] Even Pigeons Go to Heaven (Même les pigeons vont au paradis)
[ ] I Met the Walrus [ ] Madame Tutli-Putli [ ] My Love (Moya Lyubov) [ X ] Peter & the Wolf

Peter & the Wolf and My Love are the clear choices, the others being relatively shorter and less substantial.

SHORT FILM — LIVE ACTION [ ] At Night [ ] Il Supplente (The Substitute)[ ] Le Mozart des Pickpockets (The Mozart of Pickpockets) [ ] Tanghi Argentini [ X ] The Tonto Woman

As with the animation category, there are two standouts. The Tonto Woman is a western adapted from an Elmore Leonard story, and the Danish At Night is a moving story of the friendship of three young women in a cancer ward. “Cute” won out.

DOCUMENTARY SHORT
[ X ] Freeheld [ ] La Corona (The Crown) [ ] Salim Baba [ ] Sari’s Mother

Again, I didn’t see these, but I’ll go with one of the two longer ones, about a dying woman seeking domestic partnership benefits.

ORIGINAL SCORE
[ X ] Atonement [ ] The Kite Runner [ ] Michael Clayton [ ] Ratatouille [ ] 3:10 to Yuma

I don’t have much of a feeling about this; some people didn’t like Atonement’s clacking typewriters, but it was the most memorable.

ORIGINAL SONG
[ X ] “Falling Slowly” — Once [ ] “Happy Working Song” — Enchanted [ ] “Raise It Up” — August Rush [ ] “So Close” — Enchanted [ ] “That's How You Know” — Enchanted

Those Enchanted songs, which crowded out a lot of other worthy songs, will split the vote. Besides, “Falling Slowly” is a very nice song.

ART DIRECTION
[ ] American Gangster [ X ] Atonement [ ] The Golden Compass [ ] Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street [ ] There Will Be Blood

CINEMATOGRAPHY
[ ] The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford [ ] Atonement [ ] The Diving Bell and the Butterfly [ X ] No Country for Old Men [ ] There Will Be Blood

Gorgeous films all, but they’ll go with the Best Picture choice. Or they won’t.

COSTUME DESIGN
[ ] Across the Universe [ ] Atonement [ X ] Elizabeth: The Golden Age [ ] La Vie en Rose [ ] Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

Just because it was the most obviously costume-y.

MAKEUP
[ X ] La Vie en Rose [ ] Norbit [ ] Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End

Rick Baker’s effects for Norbit were great, but it’s Norbit, for Chrissake.

SOUND MIXING
[ ] The Bourne Ultimatum [ X ] No Country for Old Men [ ] Ratatouille [ ] 3:10 to Yuma [ ] Transformers

SOUND EDITING
[ ] The Bourne Ultimatum [ X ] No Country for Old Men [ ] Ratatouille [ ] There Will Be Blood [ ] Transformers

…although Ethan van der Ryn (Transformers) now has 20 nominations and no win, so maybe the Academy will take pity.

VISUAL EFFECTS
[ ] The Golden Compass [ ] Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End [ X ] Transformers

FILM EDITING
[ X ] The Bourne Ultimatum [ ] The Diving Bell and the Butterfly [ ] Into the Wild [ ] No Country for Old Men [ ] There Will Be Blood

…or maybe that’s just my choice.