Sunday, February 24, 2008

2008 Oscar Predictions [for 2007 films] and Winners

Predictions are checked; actual winners highlighted. I correctly predicted 15 out of 24 categories, or a weighted total of 28 points out of a possible 42.

BEST PICTURE
[ ] Atonement [ ] Juno [ ] Michael Clayton [ X ] No Country for Old Men [ ] There Will Be Blood

Pretty good odds on this.

DIRECTOR
[ ] Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood [ X ] Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men [ ] Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton [ ] Jason Reitman, Juno [ ] Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

I’d say there’s an even chance the Picture and Director awards could diverge. They didn’t.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
[ ] Juno [ ] Lars and the Real Girl [ X ] Michael Clayton [ ] Ratatouille [ ] The Savages

This would be my choice, too, but Juno’s screenwriter has been getting all the buzz, so that could win. …and did, so why didn’t I listen to myself?

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
[ ] Atonement [ ] Away from Her [ ] The Diving Bell and the Butterfly [ X ] No Country for Old Men [ ] There Will Be Blood

I was quite fond of Away from Her, but it won’t win. None of these was a dud, although the screenplay was not the strongest aspect of Diving Bell.

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
[ ] George Clooney, Michael Clayton [ X ] Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood [ ] Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street [ ] Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah [ ] Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises

Viggo Mortensen and Daniel Day-Lewis would equally be my choice, but Day-Lewis has the showier role. Plus, he was great.

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
[ ] Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age [ ] Julie Christie, Away from Her [ X ] Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose [ ] Laura Linney, The Savages [ ] Ellen Page, Juno

I liked the others, but those who saw La Vie en Rose couldn’t fail to be impressed, despite the language barrier; plus, portrayals of real people tend to win. I would give it to her because, compared to the others, the role had the highest degree of difficulty.

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
[ ] Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford [ X ] Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men [ ] Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson’s War[ ] Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild [ ] Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton

Good choices all, but Javier Bardem was practically a lead and scared the crap out of anyone who saw No Country. And not just because of his haircut.

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
[ X ] Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There [ ] Ruby Dee, American Gangster [ ] Saoirse Ronan, Atonement [ ] Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone [ ] Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton

A really tough category; Ruby Dee might get the award as a sentimental gesture, but although she was very good, the role was small and not that memorable. I was impressed by the other four. Missed that one.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
[ ] 12 (Russia) [ ] Beaufort (Israel) [ X ] Counterfeiters (Austria) [ ] Katyn (Poland) [ ] Mongol (Kazakhstan)

None of these has opened in Philly, but, when in doubt, go with the Holocaust-themed movie. Indeed.

ANIMATED FEATURE
[ ] Persepolis [ X ] Ratatouille [ ] Surf’s Up

Would love for the brilliant Persepolis to win, but the Disney/Pixar flick is the 900-pound gorilla here.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
[ X ] No End in Sight [ ] Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience [ ] Sicko [ ] Taxi to the Dark Side [ ] War/Dance

I’ve only seen No End in Sight and Sicko, so a tough call. And a big miss.

SHORT FILM — ANIMATED
[ ] Even Pigeons Go to Heaven (Même les pigeons vont au paradis)
[ ] I Met the Walrus [ ] Madame Tutli-Putli [ ] My Love (Moya Lyubov) [ X ] Peter & the Wolf

Peter & the Wolf and My Love are the clear choices, the others being relatively shorter and less substantial.

SHORT FILM — LIVE ACTION [ ] At Night [ ] Il Supplente (The Substitute)[ ] Le Mozart des Pickpockets (The Mozart of Pickpockets) [ ] Tanghi Argentini [ X ] The Tonto Woman

As with the animation category, there are two standouts. The Tonto Woman is a western adapted from an Elmore Leonard story, and the Danish At Night is a moving story of the friendship of three young women in a cancer ward. “Cute” won out.

DOCUMENTARY SHORT
[ X ] Freeheld [ ] La Corona (The Crown) [ ] Salim Baba [ ] Sari’s Mother

Again, I didn’t see these, but I’ll go with one of the two longer ones, about a dying woman seeking domestic partnership benefits.

ORIGINAL SCORE
[ X ] Atonement [ ] The Kite Runner [ ] Michael Clayton [ ] Ratatouille [ ] 3:10 to Yuma

I don’t have much of a feeling about this; some people didn’t like Atonement’s clacking typewriters, but it was the most memorable.

ORIGINAL SONG
[ X ] “Falling Slowly” — Once [ ] “Happy Working Song” — Enchanted [ ] “Raise It Up” — August Rush [ ] “So Close” — Enchanted [ ] “That's How You Know” — Enchanted

Those Enchanted songs, which crowded out a lot of other worthy songs, will split the vote. Besides, “Falling Slowly” is a very nice song.

ART DIRECTION
[ ] American Gangster [ X ] Atonement [ ] The Golden Compass [ ] Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street [ ] There Will Be Blood

CINEMATOGRAPHY
[ ] The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford [ ] Atonement [ ] The Diving Bell and the Butterfly [ X ] No Country for Old Men [ ] There Will Be Blood

Gorgeous films all, but they’ll go with the Best Picture choice. Or they won’t.

COSTUME DESIGN
[ ] Across the Universe [ ] Atonement [ X ] Elizabeth: The Golden Age [ ] La Vie en Rose [ ] Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

Just because it was the most obviously costume-y.

MAKEUP
[ X ] La Vie en Rose [ ] Norbit [ ] Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End

Rick Baker’s effects for Norbit were great, but it’s Norbit, for Chrissake.

SOUND MIXING
[ ] The Bourne Ultimatum [ X ] No Country for Old Men [ ] Ratatouille [ ] 3:10 to Yuma [ ] Transformers

SOUND EDITING
[ ] The Bourne Ultimatum [ X ] No Country for Old Men [ ] Ratatouille [ ] There Will Be Blood [ ] Transformers

…although Ethan van der Ryn (Transformers) now has 20 nominations and no win, so maybe the Academy will take pity.

VISUAL EFFECTS
[ ] The Golden Compass [ ] Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End [ X ] Transformers

FILM EDITING
[ X ] The Bourne Ultimatum [ ] The Diving Bell and the Butterfly [ ] Into the Wild [ ] No Country for Old Men [ ] There Will Be Blood

…or maybe that’s just my choice.

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