Sunday, February 22, 2009

2009 Oscar Predictions [for 2008 films]

Last year, I correctly predicted 15 out of 24 categories, or a weighted total of 28 points out of a possible 42. This year, I got 16 out of 24.

Best Motion Picture of the Year

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role

Nominees:

Mickey Rourke for The Wrestler

Prediction: Sean Penn (pretty close to 50/50 on Penn vs. Rourke); Actual Result: Sean Penn

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role

Nominees:

Kate Winslet for The Reader

Prediction: Kate Winslet (Kate’s great, but I’d give it to Streep); Actual Result: Kate Winslet

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees:

Michael Shannon for Revolutionary Road

Prediction: Heath Ledger; Actual Result: Heath Ledger

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

Nominees:

Marisa Tomei for The Wrestler

Prediction: Viola Davis (Cruz would be the obvious choice, but there always seem to be surprises in this category, and everyone who saw Doubt raved about Davis’s performance, short though it was); Actual Result: Penélope Cruz

Best Achievement in Directing

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen

Nominees:

WALL·E: Andrew Stanton, Pete Docter, Jim Reardon

Prediction: Milk [but I’d love for it to be Happy-Go-Lucky]; Actual Result: Milk

Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published

Nominees:

Slumdog Millionaire: Simon Beaufoy

Prediction: Slumdog Millionaire [I doubt Doubt, but that’s my vote]; Actual Result: Slumdog Millionaire

Best Achievement in Cinematography

Best Achievement in Editing

Prediction: The Dark Knight; Actual Result: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Best Achievement in Costume Design

Prediction: The Duchess [because it’s a costume drama]; Actual Result: The Duchess

Best Achievement in Makeup

Prediction: Hellboy II: The Golden Army; Actual Result: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score

Nominees:

WALL·E: Thomas Newman

Prediction: Slumdog Millionaire [the Best Picture tends to be the favorite, regardless of the musical quality]; Actual Result: Slumdog Millionaire

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song

Nominees:

WALL·E: Peter Gabriel, Thomas Newman (“Down to Earth”)

Prediction: Slumdog Millionaire, “Jai Ho” [why only three nominees? There were other songs out there.]; Actual Result: “Jai Ho”

Best Achievement in Sound Editing

Best Achievement in Visual Effects

Nominees:

Iron Man: John Nelson, Ben Snow, Daniel Sudick, Shane Mahan

Prediction: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button; Actual Result: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year

Nominees:

WALL·E: Andrew Stanton

Prediction: Wall•E [surest thing besides Heath Ledger]; Actual Result: Wall•E

Best Foreign Language Film of the Year

Nominees:

Revanche (Austria)

Waltz with Bashir [Vals Im Bashir] (Israel)

Prediction: Waltz with Bashir [I preferred The Class; handicapped by not having seen the other three when I made this prediction]; Actual Result: Departures

Best Documentary, Features

Nominees:

Trouble the Water: Tia Lessin, Carl Deal

Prediction: Man on Wire [could be Trouble the Water, which I missed in its theatrical run; saw only Man on Wire and Encounters… as of this writing] Actual Result: Man on Wire

Best Documentary, Short Subjects

Nominees:

The Witness from the Balcony of Room 306: Adam Pertofsky, Margaret Hyde

Prediction: um…The Witness from the Balcony of Room 306 [seems to be about US civil rights; not as surefire as if it were about the Holocaust, but…]; Actual Result: Smile Pinki

Best Short Film, Animated

Nominees:

This Way Up: Alan Smith, Adam Foulkes

Prediction: Presto [I preferred La Maison en petits cubes, but I have to go with the Pixar one, the only one many people have seen (as shown theatrically before Wall•E), which would be my second choice]; Actual Result: La maison en petit cubes

Best Short Film, Live Action

Nominees:

Toyland [Spielzeugland]: Jochen Alexander Freydank

Prediction: Toyland [I thought this was the weakest of the five, but never bet against the Holocaust film]; Actual Result: Toyland

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